Violence in Mexico is NOT What it Seems

Posted on February 24th, 2011 in Blog by warren

In recent months the debate about violence in Mexico has heated up significantly. Most news channels have been giving a broad coverage on the facts of crime, which are usually focused on the issue of combating organized crime.

When it comes to human life, it is always difficult to speak coldly about figures. But when we need to know what really is going on, in terms of crime, we can do nothing but refer to them.

The indicator which measures the violence in a country is the number of violent deaths per 100,000 people. This indicator has the advantage of allowing us to compare figures between countries with different population sizes.

This indicator is highly reliable and comparable between countries of the world, since in all countries it is necessary to produce death certificates to account for a death caused for any reason whatsoever. In the case of violent deaths, there is no possibility that this indicator, unlike others, observe significant levels of sub report because violent deaths are registered by law in all countries.

According the available indicators, Mexico as a country has a general level of 13.3 violent deaths per 100.00 inhabitants, making it one of the safest countries in Latin America. Levels in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela surprised us since they are at high as 16.8, 36.7 and 44.9 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Brazil and Venezuela are two and almost three times more violent than Mexico, respectively.

Moreover, if we compare this indicator with some U.S. cities we will see that our country is much better than we would expect to imagine. Comparing Mexico to Washington DC, New Orleans or Detroit the difference is very big, violence is a tangible problem in those cities. And without going too far, Mexico City has 9.8 violent deaths per 100,000 people, far below of other major cities like Houston, with 12.5, Phoenix, witn 12.6, and Los Angeles, with 17.1. It is true that there is a big problem in Ciudad Juarez and three other municipalities, which altogether sum up to more than 50% of violent deaths in Mexico. The rest of the 2,396 municipalities which form the country have relatively low violence levels.

According to figures provided by the government of Mexico, the battle against organized crime has caused 24,826 violent deaths in the last four years. As it is continuously said, inside and outside the country, it has turned Mexico in an extremely dangerous country to live. A country that sadly some have said is in “civil war” and that is a “failed state.” This is definitely not true.

Although a number like 24,826 seems pretty high, it is time to put it in context. This number represents a little over 6,000 deaths per year on average. Each year, 20,000 people die in Mexico in road accidents and more than 50,000 because of diabetes. If we look at violent deaths to compare, in the U.S. 6,000 veterans commit suicide every year. So, during the same period, the same amount of persons have died as a consequence of the U.S. post-war trauma, as the war on drugs in Mexico.

And while there is some exposure about this phenomenon in the U.S. media, it does not reach the same exposure as in Mexico. Here we are in a frenzy of daily information that the only thing it communicates is the presence of violence. Our conversations with family, friends, office, restaurants, are all about violence. We enroll ourselves and enroll others, including foreigners, in the idea that violence in Mexico has reached unsuspected levels. And there’s no evidence to support that. It is only our perception. We find ourselves filtering and searching all events and news, looking for those that speak of violence. And likewise, those are the news we speak about. It is a conversation, just a conversation.

This has affected the levels of tourism, investment and economic prospects for the country, and it is not supported by real figures, data and facts, it is only a perception. The good news is that we have the power to change that perception. It just takes to take a look at the data and facts.

Ultimately, the best way to combat any violence is to leave the fear that is generating this behind and doing something that makes us confident. Enroll ourselves and enroll others with the fact that violence stops us, it paralyzes us. What would be possible if we focus on facts and data to make us and others see that we can be responsible for creating an environment to grow and prosper instead of creating a violent space with our everyday conversations? You have this power, do it for north America and in the end you will be doing something positive for yourself and for others

икони

Mexico’s Economy Expanded in 2010

Posted on February 22nd, 2011 in Blog by warren

Mexico Economy Expanded 5.5% in 2010, Most in 10 Years

February 21, 2011, 4:26 PM EST

by Jens Erik Gould

(Adds finance minister’s comments in seventh paragraph.)

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Mexico’s gross domestic product expanded last year at the fastest pace in a decade as Latin America’s second-biggest economy recovered from a 2009 recession provoked by the global financial crisis.

GDP, the broadest measure of a country’s output of goods and services, grew 5.5 percent last year, the most since 2000, the national statistics agency said on its website. GDP expanded 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The economy was forecast to grow 4.4 percent in the final quarter, according to a survey of 13 analysts by Bloomberg.

The economy grew more than forecast in the fourth quarter because the U.S. performed better than analysts had expected, a trend that will probably continue to boost growth in its southern neighbor this year, said Sergio Martin, chief economist for Mexico at HSBC Holding Plc.

“It was undoubtedly a high number,” Martin said in a telephone interview from Mexico City. “The fourth-quarter dynamic helps you see the boost from the U.S.” that will continue in 2011.

In the U.S., rising consumer spending, business investment and exports are ensuring the economy continues to grow even as housing remains depressed. Federal Reserve policy makers said in minutes released Feb. 16 that the U.S. recovery was on a “firmer footing” while the labor market was improving “gradually.”

Growth Outlook

Mexico’s economy will probably grow more than 4.5 percent this year, Deputy Finance Minister Gerardo Rodriguez said in a Feb. 18 interview. Same-store sales grew 4.8 percent in January, according to the country’s retail association.

Mexican Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero said today that while export growth was the main driver of the economy last year, domestic demand is expected to play an equally important role this year.

“It’s much more balanced growth with a much more dynamic domestic sector,” Cordero told reporters in Mexico City.

Mexico’s peso fell 0.2 percent to 12.0621 per dollar at 3:13 p.m. New York time. The currency has strengthened 2.3 percent this year, the best performance against the dollar among the major Latin American currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

GDP grew 4.1 percent in December from a year earlier, the statistics agency said. The economy expanded 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the previous quarter, the agency said.

The manufacturing sector grew 6 percent and construction expanded 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the agency said. The services industry expanded 5 percent in 2010 and 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

–With assistance from Jonathan Roeder in Mexico City. Editors: Harry Maurer, Bill Faries

To contact the reporter on this story: Jens Erik Gould in Mexico City at jgould9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net