THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC REALITY
First: A reality check on Mexico
Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy. In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role. The U.S. media – over the last year – has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kidnapped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break. The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.
Let’s look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State Clinton was clear in her honest assessment of the problem. "Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians," Clinton said. The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A. that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This "business" is globally now competing with drugs in terms of profits.
It is critical to understand, however that the horrific violence in Mexico is over 95% confined to the three transshipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana, Nogales, and Juarez. The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns. There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez. He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A. and compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror capped off with The Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre. During these years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives and attended classes, went to the movies, restaurants, and parks.
Is there corruption in Mexico? YES !!! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A.? YES !!!. When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales you will find massive corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel; these "businessmen" are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers during Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analysis of their business much better than the US automobile industry. They have found over the years that the cost of bribing U.S. and Mexican Border Guards and the transportation costs of moving marijuana from Sinaloa to California have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years they have been growing marijuana in State and Federal Parks and BLM land all across America. From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels. Let’s look at California as an example as one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation and an overall reduction cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people. Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalties in California, on average are 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories.

FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City, among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities. With the exception of Mexico City, the number one city for kidnappings among NAFTA countries is Phoenix, Arizona with over 359 in 2008. The Phoenix Police estimate that twice that number of kidnappings goes unreported, because like Mexico 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human traffic. Phoenix, unfortunately, is geographically profitable transshipping location. Mexicans, just like 99% of U.S. Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work and live their lives untouched by the border town violence.
These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico and temporary devastated the tourism business. As of May 27 2009 there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months there have been 36 murdered school children in Chicago. By their logic, if 87 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrants canceling flights and cruise ships to Mexico, then close all roads and highways in the USA because of record 43,359 automobile related deaths in the USA in 2008.
What is just getting underway is what many are calling the "Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets since the Civil War" A significant percentage of the Baby Boomers have been doing the research and are making the life changing decision to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in the world is Mexico. There are already over 2,000,000 US and Canadian property owners in Mexico. The most conservative number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico for full or part time living in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000. Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R. 3056. The U.S. government calls this "The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007". Those who will have to pay it are calling this the EXIT TAX.
Mexico: A better economic choice than China
Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high paying skilled jobs. The job shift in automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months as John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A., and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers. In the city of Zacatecas there is currently a $210 million aerospace facility being built. With the 11 U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide over 200,000 new high paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for the shift in job south to Mexico instead of China is realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, and quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial advantage.
Mexico’s real economic future
Mexico has avoided completely the subprime problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. The Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very healthy middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position of having over 90% of current homeowners owning their house outright. U.S. banks are competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross border loan business. It is and will continue to be a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner have learned their lesson and are loaning here the old fashioned way. They require a minimum of a 680 credit score, 30% down payment, and verifiable income that can support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving to, with the exception of Puerto Penasco (which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble.. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction. The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand inside the Bay of Banderas, that price point, in the coming years, will disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government is spending billions of dollars on more infrastructure north along the coast all the way up to Mazatlan.

The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenues is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico’s GDP. The name for this "business" is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors for Mexico were Thailand and India. Thailand and India’s biggest drawback is geography. Also recent events, Thailand’s inability to keep a government in place and the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture close to half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.
Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus and an almost balanced budget. Most Americans have never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that it became clear to many investors around the world what Mexicans already knew: that Mexico had been able to avoid the worst of the U.S. economic devastation. Mexico’s resilience is to be admired. When the U.S. Federal Reserve granted a $30 billion loan to each of Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested the money in Treasury bonds in an account in New York City.
According to oil traders, Mexico’s Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel. Since the beginning of 2009 Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90-$110 per barrel today. Mexico’s recent and under reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec has placed it third in the world for oil reserves, right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.
The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on March 19, 2009. "The strength of the Mexican economic system makes the country a favorite destination for Canadian investment".
OPPORTUNITIES: WHY PUERTO VALLARTA & THE RIVIERA NAYARIT
The answer is simple and old fashioned: SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
The area of Puerto Vallarta/Riviera Nayarit inside the Bay of Banderas is an investor’s dream. This area has the comprehensive infrastructure in place, world class hospitals and dental care, natural investment protection from the Sierra Madre Mountains, endless future water supply, low to nonexistent crime, international airport, and limited supply inside the Bay, first class private bilingual schools and higher than average appreciation potential. Like many areas in Mexico there is large demand for full and part time retirement living and a lot of construction underway to meet this demand. Pre construction of course is where the best bargains are available.
I would offer a word of caution for investors in Mexico. Do not be seduced by the endless natural beauty that is everywhere, both inland in colonial towns and along thousands of miles of beach. Apply conservative medium and long term investment strategies without emotion. The demand for full and part time living by American and Canadian Baby Boomers is evident throughout the country. The top two choice locations are ocean front, and ocean view. The third overall choice, which is less expensive, is inland in one of the many beautiful colonial towns or small cities.
Mexico, with the world’s 13th largest GDP, is no longer a "Third World Country", but rather a fast growing, economically secure state, as the most recent five-year history of its financial markets when compared to the U.S.A.’s financial markets suggests.
DOW JONES AVERAGES MAY 2004 10,200 MAY 2009 8,200 20% LOSS IN 5 YEARS
MEXICAN BOLSA MAY 2004 10,000 MAY 2009 23,000 130% GAIN IN 5 YEARS

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by: Sarah Wildman | from: AARP VIVA | February 23, 2011

Using Language to Combat Dementia

The mental agility you need to be bilingual can keep the brain working better, for longer

Bilingualism may be the best weapon in our arsenal against mind decay.
That would come as a surprise to educators from the early 20th century through the 1950s, who pushed immigrant children to abandon their parents’ language. Two languages, it was said, would confuse kids and even divide patriotic loyalties. By the 1960s, researchers reversed course, revealing that bilingual children were actually scoring better on intelligence tests than their monolingual counterparts.

— Yasu+Junko

Now a new study from the Rotman Research Institute and York University in Toronto, Ontario, goes even further. Using two languages interchangeably throughout life, researchers found, leads to a lifelong advantage in attention and concentration and actually delays the onset of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease by 4.3 years. That’s especially welcome news for Hispanics, who have a 1.5 times greater chance of developing Alzheimer’s than non-Latino whites.
"Learning a language will not make you smarter, but being multilingual definitely gives you cognitive advantages," says Raúl Echevarria, cofounder of Spanish- and French-immersion preschools in the Washington, D.C., area. "People who are multilingual face greater ambiguity in day-to-day life; they have to decide which linguistic pool they will draw from. This requires them to really key in and be selective. That is a high-level cognitive skill."

Dr. Fergus I.M. Craik, who led the Canadian study, agrees. "Bilingual children have an advantage and disadvantage relative to monolingual children," he explains. "The disadvantage is that their vocabulary is slightly smaller in both languages. The advantages come from various tasks which require inhibiting relative information."

This ability to suppress one language while using another one nurtures mental agility, a skill researchers believe is far more useful than vocabulary lists. Mental agility is key in fighting against cognitive loss.

"The conclusion, which is really quite dramatic, is that speaking two languages does have this effect,’" says Craik, which seems to "buffer a person against the symptoms of dementia." And while chatting equally well in Spanish and English doesn’t actually stop deterioration, what happens for bilinguals  —  used to translating, each day, between ideas and concepts as well as words  —  is that "parts of the brain are fitter and better able to compensate for losses in other parts." And that keeps the brain working better, for longer.

Thinking about learning a second language later in life? Craik says that it may have some effect in fighting cognitive decline but to a lesser degree — similar to the effects of other taxing mental activities.

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By JUSTIN HORNER

Published: March 4, 2011

• During this past year I’ve had three instances of car trouble: a blowout on a freeway, a bunch of blown fuses and an out-of-gas situation. They all happened while I was driving other people’s cars, which for some reason makes it worse on an emotional level. And on a practical level as well, what with the fact that I carry things like a jack and extra fuses in my own car, and know enough not to park on a steep incline with less than a gallon of fuel.

Each time, when these things happened, I was disgusted with the way people didn’t bother to help. I was stuck on the side of the freeway hoping my friend’s roadside service would show, just watching tow trucks cruise past me. The people at the gas stations where I asked for a gas can told me that they couldn’t lend them out “for safety reasons,” but that I could buy a really crappy one-gallon can, with no cap, for $15. It was enough to make me say stuff like “this country is going to hell in a handbasket,” which I actually said.

But you know who came to my rescue all three times? Immigrants. Mexican immigrants. None of them spoke any English.

One of those guys stopped to help me with the blowout even though he had his whole family of four in tow. I was on the side of the road for close to three hours with my friend’s big Jeep. I put signs in the windows, big signs that said, “NEED A JACK,” and offered money. Nothing. Right as I was about to give up and start hitching, a van pulled over, and the guy bounded out.

He sized up the situation and called for his daughter, who spoke English. He conveyed through her that he had a jack but that it was too small for the Jeep, so we would need to brace it. Then he got a saw from the van and cut a section out of a big log on the side of the road. We rolled it over, put his jack on top and we were in business.

I started taking the wheel off, and then, if you can believe it, I broke his tire iron. It was one of those collapsible ones, and I wasn’t careful, and I snapped the head clean off. Damn.

No worries: he ran to the van and handed it to his wife, and she was gone in a flash down the road to buy a new tire iron. She was back in 15 minutes. We finished the job with a little sweat and cussing (the log started to give), and I was a very happy man.

The two of us were filthy and sweaty. His wife produced a large water jug for us to wash our hands in. I tried to put a 20 in the man’s hand, but he wouldn’t take it, so instead I went up to the van and gave it to his wife as quietly as I could. I thanked them up one side and down the other. I asked the little girl where they lived, thinking maybe I’d send them a gift for being so awesome. She said they lived in Mexico. They were in Oregon so Mommy and Daddy could pick cherries for the next few weeks. Then they were going to pick peaches, then go back home.

After I said my goodbyes and started walking back to the Jeep, the girl called out and asked if I’d had lunch. When I told her no, she ran up and handed me a tamale.

This family, undoubtedly poorer than just about everyone else on that stretch of highway, working on a seasonal basis where time is money, took a couple of hours out of their day to help a strange guy on the side of the road while people in tow trucks were just passing him by.

But we weren’t done yet. I thanked them again and walked back to my car and opened the foil on the tamale (I was starving by this point), and what did I find inside? My $20 bill! I whirled around and ran to the van and the guy rolled down his window. He saw the $20 in my hand and just started shaking his head no. All I could think to say was, “Por favor, por favor, por favor,” with my hands out. The guy just smiled and, with what looked like great concentration, said in English: “Today you, tomorrow me.”

Then he rolled up his window and drove away, with his daughter waving to me from the back. I sat in my car eating the best tamale I’ve ever had, and I just started to cry. It had been a rough year; nothing seemed to break my way. This was so out of left field I just couldn’t handle it.

In the several months since then I’ve changed a couple of tires, given a few rides to gas stations and once drove 50 miles out of my way to get a girl to an airport. I won’t accept money. But every time I’m able to help, I feel as if I’m putting something in the bank.

Justin Horner is a graphic designer living in Portland, Ore. This essay was adapted from a message-board posting on reddit.com.

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Friday, March 4, 2011

This Blog entry was written by Judy Evans, a Warren Hardy Student.

"La Cortesía"

This is our fourth year in a row coming to San Miguel. Although it’s a pleasure to be here, we don’t consider ourselves typical "tourists" (people who travel to or visit a place for pleasure). Rather, the opportunity to stay for extended periods of time allows us to satisfy an anthropological  fascination with the Mexican peoples and their culture, past and present.

A re-enactment of  traditional native dress and dance.

Each year we attend a marvelous lecture, done by Warren Hardy (founder of the language school I attend) entitled "What Really Matters to Mexicans?" In that class he explores the history of Mexico as well as the United States, and reveals how that history has shaped who the Mexican people are today. And what we need to do, as visitors in their country, to gain their trust and respect so that we can live in harmony.
Mexico is a tribal nation that bears the wounds of it’s history. Although it’s civilization was destroyed by Cortes and the conquistadors in the 1500′s with a new race of people (Mestizos) created, and although half of it’s land (now known as California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and part of Utah) was lost to the United States (1848), the deeply ingrained spirituality of this indigenous people has enabled them to hang on to their souls and emerge as a gentle, dignified race, proud of their country, and who they are.

Un hombre in traditional colorful Mexican attire

The term "La Cortesia" was coined during Mexico’s Humanist Movement in 1847 when some of the basic courtesies of Spain, along with the core values of respect and dignity that the Mexicans embraced as a people, began to be institutionalized. It was, and continues to be, the job of the mother to teach these courtesies to her children. To this day, if a person does not adhere to the core values of "La Cortesia", he or she is considered "mal educado" (poorly educated). This is a blemish on the mother.  And because family is so important to Mexicans, a bad reflection on the mother is avoided at all costs.

A typical Mexican family, enjoying one another’s company in

El Jardin, the beautiful park in the center of town.

Rick and I have learned that, as visitors in their country, being aware of and using the basic tools in "La Cortesia" is a way of connecting with the Mexcian people. Extending dignity through these simple courtesies lets them know, at some level, that we’re aware of their history and that we respect their core values. We have used two of these tools with great results, and I would like to share them with you in this essay.
1) Formal Greetings of "Buenos Días", "Buenas Tardes" and "Buenas Noches"
The simple acknowledgement of another person as you enter their space by using one of the above greetings (depending on the time of day) goes a long way. And adding a title (such as Señor or Señora) to the greeting not only gets a response from the recipient, but usually a smile. Remember the political novel written in 1958, "The Ugly American"?  Who wants to be burdened with such a label while visiting another country? The "formal greeting" is an easy way to establish equality while imparting a sense of dignity that goes both ways, thus eliminating any negative perceptions that might exist. And take our word for it – it works like a charm. Whether it’s with a shopkeeper, a waitperson, or just someone we pass on the street, "Buenos días" is a sincere way of connecting – from the heart.
2) Requesting Space – "Con Permiso"
The sidewalks of San Miguel are narrow, and can be difficult to traverse. Often the person in front of me is walking slowly; other times two or more people are engaged in conversation, taking up the space that I need to pass through. Of course it’s an option to move onto the street (as long as it’s not busy and/or there are no cars parked alongside). But knowing about the simple phrase "con permiso", and using it when wanting to get by, is akin to having the key to a locked door. Although it’s been amazing to see how positively people respond to those words, I used to wonder what the person was saying as they momentarily paused and I passed. Their quiet tone always implied politeness and respect (which, I assumed, ruled out rude labels and swear words), and I naturally responded with "gracias". But just yesterday I learned from an American, fluent in Spanish, that the response to "con permiso" is "propía", which means "it’s yours". Now how lovely is that? What a graceful, dignified interaction, in a situation that could easily be interpreted as "ugly American-ish" if not done properly. "Muchas gracias" to Warren Hardy for this invaluable cultural tip.

*****

I feel blessed to have the opportunity to spend a significant time in Mexico each winter. I cherish the warmth,  I rejoice in my advances while studying the language, and I really like meeting other adventurers who appreciate what San Miguel has to offer. But the frosting on the cake is that each year I’m able to go deeper in my understanding of the lifestyle and culture of a truly soft and lovely race of people. I’ve obviously discovered an anthropological interest that I never even realized I had.  Now that’s cool!!!

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